Posted on 14. Mar, 2010 by Danny.
Things did not pan out as expected, however, we were still treated to a decent light show and some beautiful structure. I may post a video of some lightning later on. We didn’t get any rotating storms or tornadoes, but storms did form and produced pea sized hail and abundant lightning. The front set up [...]
Posted on 14. Mar, 2010 by Ryan.
On the night of Wednesday, March 10, 2010, a line of severe warned storms developed in central Missouri and tracked ENE. While tornado warnings had been issued on a cell in the northern part of the line, cloud bases were extremely high (5-6,000 ft), leading more towards a high wind threat than an imminent tornadic [...]
Posted on 09. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
Like poetry in motion, the latest suite of model runs (00z) has those of us in the upper Mississippi valley who are smitten with SDS once again refining the state of synoptic affairs. The NAM has pulled a somewhat about face, changing the stakes for Thursday’s game. The best surface instability has been shunted to [...]
Posted on 09. Mar, 2010 by Skip.
I’m eyeing central IA into west central IL for possible cold-core like activity in the early afternoon including an isolated risk for large hail and tornadoes. The 12z NAM is in fairly good agreement with previous runs that an elongated area of low pressure at the surface is going to setup over central IA extending [...]
Posted on 09. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
The upward motion in vicinity of this shortwave trough could indeed net favorable parameters for severe weather in Central and Southwest Illinois on Thursday afternoon and evening. To add to what Danny already noted, the GFS and the NAM are on somewhat different pages regarding this scenario. The NAM is forecasting CAPE values in excess [...]
Posted on 09. Mar, 2010 by Danny.
This is looking more and more like it will NOT be a cold core event. Mike Umscheid wrote a nice piece about today’s event and reminded us that the phrase “cold core” is tossed around too much. This could be a legit warm sector string of pearl supercell event for SW IL. Judging by what [...]
Posted on 08. Mar, 2010 by Danny.
Well we are right back at it again it seems. It appears likely that things could be setting up for a local chase. The 18z and 00z NAM have shown a nice set up for SW IL/ E MO into C IL. High temps pushing 70 degrees with a decent moisture return North (along the [...]
Posted on 05. Mar, 2010 by Ryan.
If you have ever looked at a forecast sounding and wondered what all of those numbers and letters were on the side of the graph, we have your answer. They are indices which allow forecasters to take a quick glance at different aspects of the atmosphere without having to compute all of the formulas by [...]
Posted on 05. Mar, 2010 by Skip.
The GFS and now the NAM have been trending negatively since I last posted. I was hoping to get more of a classic cold core setup out of this system, but that doesn’t look like its going to happen now. With the system continuously slowing down, the cold air aloft doesn’t overtake the surface moisture [...]
Posted on 03. Mar, 2010 by Danny.
**This is not a “it is going to happen event, in fact previous runs have looked better than this one. The main point of the script below is to demonstrate how it were to happen if it were to happen, overall not COMPLETELY sold either way** 00z GFS – March 4th run: It is looking [...]