Archive for 'Forecasts'
FCST: 03/20 – 03/21 – Winter Event
Posted on19. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
Today’s 12Z model runs have started to come into better agreement regarding the upcoming storm system that should move out of the Southern Plains and into the Ohio River valley by early Monday. Models seem to be centering on a more southerly track from what was being indicated much earlier in the week, which isn’t [...]
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03/20 – 03/21 Forecast: Winter (Spring?) Storm
Posted on16. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
Have you got your vernal bliss on yet? If so, an early spring snow storm could be arriving just in time to help you get your groove on. It could be a whopper; hold the pickles! This evening’s model runs are in, with the 00Z suite of model runs (GFS and NAM) continuing the trend [...]
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Latest Introspection on Thursday’s (03/11/10) Setup
Posted on09. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
Like poetry in motion, the latest suite of model runs (00z) has those of us in the upper Mississippi valley who are smitten with SDS once again refining the state of synoptic affairs. The NAM has pulled a somewhat about face, changing the stakes for Thursday’s game. The best surface instability has been shunted to [...]
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Forecast Addendum: March 11, 2010 (IL, E. MO and far SE IA)
Posted on09. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
The upward motion in vicinity of this shortwave trough could indeed net favorable parameters for severe weather in Central and Southwest Illinois on Thursday afternoon and evening. To add to what Danny already noted, the GFS and the NAM are on somewhat different pages regarding this scenario. The NAM is forecasting CAPE values in excess [...]
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3/11/10 – Forecast Update – SW IL, E MO, SE IA
Posted on09. Mar, 2010 by Danny.
This is looking more and more like it will NOT be a cold core event. Mike Umscheid wrote a nice piece about today’s event and reminded us that the phrase “cold core” is tossed around too much. This could be a legit warm sector string of pearl supercell event for SW IL. Judging by what [...]
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3/11/10 – Forecast – Musings about possible Cold-Core Event in MO/IL
Posted on08. Mar, 2010 by Danny.
Well we are right back at it again it seems. It appears likely that things could be setting up for a local chase. The 18z and 00z NAM have shown a nice set up for SW IL/ E MO into C IL. High temps pushing 70 degrees with a decent moisture return North (along the [...]
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3/8/10 Forecast Followup – Isolated severe threat in the Southern Plains
Posted on05. Mar, 2010 by Skip.
The GFS and now the NAM have been trending negatively since I last posted. I was hoping to get more of a classic cold core setup out of this system, but that doesn’t look like its going to happen now. With the system continuously slowing down, the cold air aloft doesn’t overtake the surface moisture [...]
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3/8/10 Forecast – Musings about possible cold core setup in S. Plains
Posted on03. Mar, 2010 by Danny.
**This is not a “it is going to happen event, in fact previous runs have looked better than this one. The main point of the script below is to demonstrate how it were to happen if it were to happen, overall not COMPLETELY sold either way** 00z GFS – March 4th run: It is looking [...]
