Archive for 'Forecasts'
FCST: 01/22/12 – 01/23/12 – Substantial Severe Weather Event Plausible Across South-Central U.S.
Posted on21. Jan, 2012 by Jesse.
A formidable severe weather event appears to be evolving for parts of Dixie Alley late Sunday evening and into the overnight and early morning hours on Monday, with the possibility for nocturnal tornadoes and damaging winds being the primary hazards. A setup that was previously looking more mediocre than not has, per 12z/22 model runs, [...]
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Appreciable Fall SVR Risk Possible Early Next Week?
Posted on03. Nov, 2011 by Jesse.
Shifting through the model detritus of a system that, just five short days ago, offered the real potential for an appreciable SVR risk this coming weekend, the 00z/Nov. 3 model runs are indicating that the Gulf of Mexico really opens back up for business by late Saturday as return (poleward) moisture flow commences in advance [...]
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FCST: 05/25/11 – Middle Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys
Posted on25. May, 2011 by Jesse.
Another significant severe weather day appears in store for parts of the Midwest and Corn Belt regions, especially over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. As yesterday’s system treks eastward, the strong mid and upper-level dynamics will once again coalesce with a very unstable warm sector to potentially yield an outbreak of [...]
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FCST: 07/19/10 – Western Corn Belt Region
Posted on19. Jul, 2010 by Jesse.
An entrenched zone of westerly flow will contribute towards promulgating a series of mid level shortwave disturbances across the Midwest early this week, with an active convective day likely Monday. Monday’s 00z suite of numerical model runs are fairly congruous in propelling a belt of H25 flow on the order of 100 kts across the [...]
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FCST: 07/17/10 – Upper Midwest
Posted on15. Jul, 2010 by Jesse.
Saturday afternoon and evening could yield the next in a series of active severe weather episodes across the Upper Midwest. A stalwart H25 flow of 80 kts will persist over the Northern Plains, with an attendant H25 streak ~100 kts evident on the 00z NAM and GFS runs between 00z and 03z Sunday. This will [...]
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Extratropical System Analysis – Heavy Rainfall Potential (Week of 7/04/10)
Posted on03. Jul, 2010 by Jesse.
A rather abundant amount of remnant moisture, Hurrican Alex of yore, is centered over the Rio Grand valley in south central Texas, and it continues to progress steadily northward. The northern extent of this deep tropical moisture plume is currently advecting northward into the Missouri River Valley. As this moisture plume continues to advance northward, [...]
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FCST: 06/05/10 – IA/IL/MO/IN
Posted on04. Jun, 2010 by Jesse.
Saturday could be another day of potentially active weather across the Central Lowlands. A 1004 mb low is progged to be situated near the IA/NE border region by Saturday morning (per the NAM, GFS and ECMWF), though exact placement varies slightly by model choice. A nearly stationary frontal boundary should be present from south central [...]
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FCST: 06/04/10 – WI/IA/MO/IL
Posted on03. Jun, 2010 by Jesse.
A shortwave trough that currently resides over the south-central prairie province region of Canada will promulgate a ~ 1000mb low pressure system from the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes region by 02z Saturday. However, the exact placement of surface features associated with this attendant low pressure system vary according to the several different [...]
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FCST: 06/01/10 – NE/IA/MO
Posted on31. May, 2010 by Jesse.
The next chance for significant severe weather appears to be developing across the Upper Midwest for late Tuesday afternoon, extending into the evening and overnight hours. It should be noted that the forecast dynamics associated with this event are presently pointing towards the ontogenesis of a potent MCS-type scenario (per 12z model runs on 05/31), [...]
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FCST: 05/12/10 – KS/MO/IL
Posted on11. May, 2010 by Jesse.
Continuing the active weather pattern, Wednesday has the potential to bring another round of severe weather to the Midwest. The noxious trough that has been responsible for the past few days of active weather on the Plains will start to eject eastward towards the Great Lakes on Wednesday. With the ejection of the trough, a [...]
