Archive for 'Forecasts'
FCST: 07/19/10 – Western Corn Belt Region
Posted on19. Jul, 2010 by Jesse.
An entrenched zone of westerly flow will contribute towards promulgating a series of mid level shortwave disturbances across the Midwest early this week, with an active convective day likely Monday. Monday’s 00z suite of numerical model runs are fairly congruous in propelling a belt of H25 flow on the order of 100 kts across the [...]
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FCST: 07/17/10 – Upper Midwest
Posted on15. Jul, 2010 by Jesse.
Saturday afternoon and evening could yield the next in a series of active severe weather episodes across the Upper Midwest. A stalwart H25 flow of 80 kts will persist over the Northern Plains, with an attendant H25 streak ~100 kts evident on the 00z NAM and GFS runs between 00z and 03z Sunday. This will [...]
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Extratropical System Analysis – Heavy Rainfall Potential (Week of 7/04/10)
Posted on03. Jul, 2010 by Jesse.
A rather abundant amount of remnant moisture, Hurrican Alex of yore, is centered over the Rio Grand valley in south central Texas, and it continues to progress steadily northward. The northern extent of this deep tropical moisture plume is currently advecting northward into the Missouri River Valley. As this moisture plume continues to advance northward, [...]
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FCST: 06/05/10 – IA/IL/MO/IN
Posted on04. Jun, 2010 by Jesse.
Saturday could be another day of potentially active weather across the Central Lowlands. A 1004 mb low is progged to be situated near the IA/NE border region by Saturday morning (per the NAM, GFS and ECMWF), though exact placement varies slightly by model choice.
A nearly stationary frontal boundary should be present from south central Iowa [...]
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FCST: 06/04/10 – WI/IA/MO/IL
Posted on03. Jun, 2010 by Jesse.
A shortwave trough that currently resides over the south-central prairie province region of Canada will promulgate a ~ 1000mb low pressure system from the northern High Plains into the Great Lakes region by 02z Saturday. However, the exact placement of surface features associated with this attendant low pressure system vary according to the several different [...]
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FCST: 06/01/10 – NE/IA/MO
Posted on31. May, 2010 by Jesse.
The next chance for significant severe weather appears to be developing across the Upper Midwest for late Tuesday afternoon, extending into the evening and overnight hours. It should be noted that the forecast dynamics associated with this event are presently pointing towards the ontogenesis of a potent MCS-type scenario (per 12z model runs on 05/31), [...]
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FCST: 05/12/10 – KS/MO/IL
Posted on11. May, 2010 by Jesse.
Continuing the active weather pattern, Wednesday has the potential to bring another round of severe weather to the Midwest. The noxious trough that has been responsible for the past few days of active weather on the Plains will start to eject eastward towards the Great Lakes on Wednesday. With the ejection of the trough, a [...]
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FCST #2: 05/10/10 – KS/OK/TX
Posted on09. May, 2010 by Jesse.
Now that the actual event is drawing closer, and previous model uncertainties are beginning to become clearer, it’s time once again to revisit Monday’s potential for some significant severe weather over a relatively narrow corridor from northern Texas into central Kansas. It was decided to refer more to the NAM/WRF for today’s forecast, as we [...]
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05/10/10 FCST: KS/OK/TX
Posted on08. May, 2010 by Jesse.
The written pericope of this particular forecast overview will be more succinct, as final timing and placement of attendant surface features, such as the placement of the dry line/dew point front, timing of ejection and final placement of the trough, along with the exact nature of the thermodynamic environment associated with Monday’s potential severe weather [...]
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FCST: 05/07/10 – MI/IN/OH
Posted on06. May, 2010 by Jesse.
A 998 mb low will promulgate into the Southern Great Lakes late Friday morning. An attenuating warm front will lift north of the Ohio Valley, reaching northern Indiana and Ohio by early Friday afternoon, creating a moderately unstable atmosphere should maximum solar isolation indeed coalesce. Forecast models show dew points across the region reaching the [...]
