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Active Weather Returns Late Next Week?
Posted on15. Apr, 2010 by Jesse.
Have you been one of the masses glaring at weather models with a feculent sense of optimism the last week? Weather aficionados will certainly want to begin keeping a close eye on the next chances for potentially adverse weather, as the current pattern begins a subtle change into next week. A shortwave disturbance is progged [...]
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North Central Missouri Supercell – April 04, 2010
Posted on07. Apr, 2010 by Jesse.
Convective Addiction’s Brad Goddard and Jesse Risley intercept a SVR warned supercell SW of Moberly, MO on Sunday, April 04, 2010. This storm went tornado warned shortly later, with several unconfirmed touchdows in the Roanoke and Mexico, MO areas. Adam Lucio was also on this same cell, and will be posting impressive footage from his [...]
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3/27/10 FCST: Potential Cold Core Event
Posted on25. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
Are you tired of popping anti-SDS pharmaceutical products? If so, this weekend offers a potentially paltry cold core event in SE KS and Western MO. The 00z GFS and NAM, as well as the 12z ECMWF are fairly synchronous in propelling an upper level cold core low eastward along the KS/OK border region from 06z [...]
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FCST: 03/20 – 03/21 – Winter Event
Posted on19. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
Today’s 12Z model runs have started to come into better agreement regarding the upcoming storm system that should move out of the Southern Plains and into the Ohio River valley by early Monday. Models seem to be centering on a more southerly track from what was being indicated much earlier in the week, which isn’t [...]
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03/20 – 03/21 Forecast: Winter (Spring?) Storm
Posted on16. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
Have you got your vernal bliss on yet? If so, an early spring snow storm could be arriving just in time to help you get your groove on. It could be a whopper; hold the pickles! This evening’s model runs are in, with the 00Z suite of model runs (GFS and NAM) continuing the trend [...]
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Latest Introspection on Thursday’s (03/11/10) Setup
Posted on09. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
Like poetry in motion, the latest suite of model runs (00z) has those of us in the upper Mississippi valley who are smitten with SDS once again refining the state of synoptic affairs. The NAM has pulled a somewhat about face, changing the stakes for Thursday’s game. The best surface instability has been shunted to [...]
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Forecast Addendum: March 11, 2010 (IL, E. MO and far SE IA)
Posted on09. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
The upward motion in vicinity of this shortwave trough could indeed net favorable parameters for severe weather in Central and Southwest Illinois on Thursday afternoon and evening. To add to what Danny already noted, the GFS and the NAM are on somewhat different pages regarding this scenario. The NAM is forecasting CAPE values in excess [...]
