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Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Expected – FCST: 04/10/11
Posted on10. Apr, 2011 by Jesse.
A significant severe weather outbreak appears poised to take aim on the Upper Mississippi Valley/Superior Uplands region of the Upper Midwest on Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. This potentially significant SVR weather event could feature all modes of SVR weather, including large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes from long-lived, discrete supercells. A potent [...]
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FCST: 04/09/11 – Midwest / Mid-Mississippi Valley
Posted on08. Apr, 2011 by Jesse.
Saturday is looking to be sort of the archetypal “day before the day” severe weather event in the central CONUS. A powerful upper-level trough currently situated over the Great Basin/Sonora region of the SW CONUS will continue digging eastward as it completes amplification within the longwave regime, taking aim on the Upper Midwest by the [...]
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Chase Report: IA – 04/03/11
Posted on06. Apr, 2011 by Jesse.
I chased this day with Dr. Tom Williams and Rich Sample, both from Western Illinois University. We initially targeted Mt. Pleasant, IA, but later decided to drop south to near Keosauqua, IA after some of the short-range numerical models were showing convection erupting across parts of far N MO and far S IA between 21z [...]
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FCST: 04/03/11 – Upper Midwest / Central Plains
Posted on02. Apr, 2011 by Jesse.
Much of the Midwest is gearing up for what looks to be a severe weather day on Sunday, particularly in the evening into the overnight hours. An upper-level trough currently centered over British Columbia will gyrate eastward over the next several days, evolving into a more neutral to positively tilted phase as it perambulates towards [...]
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March 26, 2011 Chase Report – Alabama and Mississippi
Posted on27. Mar, 2011 by Jesse.
I chased this day with Mike Brady and Jeremy Degenhart. We initially targeted the Grenada, MS area on Saturday morning, but decided to head further east into the Golden Triangle region of eastern Mississippi after later convective trends indicated that initiation of the first round of convection would commence late morning or early afternoon across [...]
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Vernal Bliss = Chasing Prospects on the Horizon?
Posted on14. Mar, 2011 by Jesse.
The vernal equinox will usher in the first official day of spring next Sunday when the sun crosses the true celestial equator. The days are slowly getting longer and the northern hemisphere will soon be engulfed in more widespread, seasonal temperatures. The medium and long-range numerical models are hinting at a more favorable synoptic pattern [...]
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FCST: 02/24/11
Posted on23. Feb, 2011 by Jesse.
A potential SVR weather episode is likely to unfold across parts of the Lower Mississippi River valley on Thursday, though the extent of a seemingly more appreciable TOR threat remains in question due to possible instability limitations. A mid-level shortwave, with an associated upper-level jet core of 120 kts, will move into the S Plains [...]
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Mid-February Thaw – Part II
Posted on13. Feb, 2011 by Jesse.
As we continue to watch what appears to be at least a temporary (and optimistic) pattern change, the medium and long-range models are advertising some tantalizing respite from the arctic blasts and adverse winter weather which have been slamming the CONUS the past few months. For more on the teleconnections associated with this sudden respite [...]
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Mid-February Thaw: Temporal Pattern Change on the Horizon
Posted on10. Feb, 2011 by Jesse.
A large part of the CONUS has been under the influence of rather extreme winter weather conditions since December. For example, the Groundhog Day blizzard set or tied 24-hour snowfall records in parts of OK, MO and IL. On a more recent note, heavier snow banding produced another bout of 12″ – 20″ + of [...]
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Snowtorious B.I.G. prepares to exit stage right
Posted on02. Feb, 2011 by Jesse.
Snowtorious B.I.G. continues to pound parts of the nation’s northeastern section, while leaving in its wake a crippling blizzard that will be followed by extremely cold temperatures and a continuation of blizzard to near blizzard conditions in the area encapsulated by its steep pressure gradient. Here’s a 6 AM surface analysis from the HPC: The [...]
