Archive by Author
FCST: 01/22/12 – 01/23/12 – Substantial Severe Weather Event Plausible Across South-Central U.S.
Posted on21. Jan, 2012 by Jesse.
A formidable severe weather event appears to be evolving for parts of Dixie Alley late Sunday evening and into the overnight and early morning hours on Monday, with the possibility for nocturnal tornadoes and damaging winds being the primary hazards. A setup that was previously looking more mediocre than not has, per 12z/22 model runs, [...]
Continue Reading
Appreciable Fall SVR Risk Possible Early Next Week?
Posted on03. Nov, 2011 by Jesse.
Shifting through the model detritus of a system that, just five short days ago, offered the real potential for an appreciable SVR risk this coming weekend, the 00z/Nov. 3 model runs are indicating that the Gulf of Mexico really opens back up for business by late Saturday as return (poleward) moisture flow commences in advance [...]
Continue Reading
FCST: November 05 – 06, 2011
Posted on30. Oct, 2011 by Jesse.
Late yesterday afternoon we first mentioned a potentially high impact storm system that may affect large parts of the US next weekend. While this is a system that needs to be closely monitored, as it is poised to potentially be the first major high impact surface cyclone of the fall season, it is far too [...]
Continue Reading
FCST: June 27, 2011
Posted on27. Jun, 2011 by Jesse.
Convective Addiction members will be monitoring today as each of the home states for our entire team is under the scope for a conditional threat of severe weather again today, with the main peril likely being damaging winds. A threat for an isolated tornado or two will exist, however, albeit on an even more conditional [...]
Continue Reading
June 14, 2011: New Boston, MO Tornado
Posted on15. Jun, 2011 by Jesse.
A spectacular view of a tornado in northeastern Missouri at night is a rare treat, and getting a decent viewing angle is even less likely. Frankly, I was convinced that this particular severe weather event would be mostly a non-event due to the presence of a strong EML (warm layer aloft that prevents vigorous convective [...]
Continue Reading
FCST: 05/25/11 – Middle Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys
Posted on25. May, 2011 by Jesse.
Another significant severe weather day appears in store for parts of the Midwest and Corn Belt regions, especially over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. As yesterday’s system treks eastward, the strong mid and upper-level dynamics will once again coalesce with a very unstable warm sector to potentially yield an outbreak of [...]
Continue Reading
FCST: 05/24/11 – Central and Southern Plains
Posted on24. May, 2011 by Jesse.
All of the synoptic ingredients appear to be coalescing today for a major severe weather outbreak across the Central and Southern Plains, and the SPC has already outlined a high risk for severe weather across the region. Some details remain to evolve, so mesoscale forecasting will be important this afternoon as the event gets closer [...]
Continue Reading
04/22/2011 – St. Louis area tornadoes (chase report)
Posted on23. Apr, 2011 by Jesse.
I chased on Friday, April 22, 2011 with Dr. Tom Williams from Western Illinois University, along with fellow chasers Jeremy Degenhart and Eric Apel. We witnessed several tornadoes and tornadic circulations in the St. Louis region, including power flashes associated with the cell that moved through Pontoon Beach, IL after dark. We initially targeted Kingdom [...]
Continue Reading
FCST: 04/19/11 – Midwest Regional Severe Outbreak
Posted on18. Apr, 2011 by Jesse.
A significant severe weather event appears poised to unfold across a large part of the nation’s midsection tomorrow, especially across areas of the Upper Mississippi River and Ohio River valleys. The current surface analysis shows a stationary boundary draped largely proximal to the I-70 corridor, with a 997 mb surface cyclone situated over the Southern [...]
Continue Reading
04/09/11 Chase Report – Sac and Pocahontas County, Iowa Tornadoes
Posted on11. Apr, 2011 by Jesse.
I chased this day with Brad Goddard and Jodi Irvin; we initially targeted Council Bluffs, IA as a preliminary starting spot, but decided to move north to the Missouri Valley truck stop exit when a cumulus field started to build northwest of Omaha between 4 PM and 5 PM. A healthy storm popped up west [...]
