Still keeping an eye on Mondays potential in Texas.
It doesn’t take a genius to notice that the recent GFS and NAM solutions have some major differences. Given the difficulty the GFS and EURO have had handling this system this should not come as a surprise. Model differences are normal, but this is pretty dramatic. In fact, if you check SPC’s day 4-8 outlook…they completely skipped over even mentioning Monday and went straight to Tuesday.
If there is one good thing to note its that the GFS has been very consistent in showing this system as being a good chase day, and run to run consistency is a good thing. Still though, with the system only 4 days away the models should be much more aligned then this. The GFS still digs a trough down with attendant surface low into the panhandle region by 0z Tuesday. Recent runs have tried to pull the system slightly to the north, setting up the best target along the dryline bulge near the Red River. Poorer chase terrain, but 2 hours closer and better for someone considering traveling from Chicago to chase the setup.
It is hard to gauge just how the NAM wants to handle this just yet. The 0z run had a weak surface low in central TX by 12z Monday, which to me completely kills the chase as that low would surely have begun ejecting into the ARKLATEX region by 0z and thus taking all its juicy parameters into the jungles of the ARKLATEX. The 12z NAM trended slightly more in a positive direction and keeps a surface low in the panhandles at 0z Tuesday, though it is much weaker with moisture return. Seeing this slower trend could, hopefully, maybe be the beginning trend to a more positive solution that falls in line with the GFS.
For now though…we still eagerly await each new model run to get a better grip on this potential chase day.
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