Convective Addiction

Potentially Grandiose New Years Storm: FCST -> 12/31/10 – 01/01/11

Posted on 25. Dec, 2010 by Jesse in Uncategorized

One can only hope that this brief forecast finds everyone enjoying a very safe and merry Christmas. Now that the current winter weather event is winding down for parts of the Midwest, all eyes are starting to focus on late next week, as the long-range models are advertising another potentially major weather maker for the upcoming New Year’s holiday weekend.

Since this system is a good six days out, it’s far too early to discern any specifics. If there’s any fixed star in the numerical model constellation, it is that timing, placement and evolution of these systems change, often very drastically within the time frame of several runs, even within 48 hours of the actual system’s onslaught. At this juncture it would only be prudent to note that the long-range models (GFS/ECMWF) are advertising a trough gyrating into the middle CONUS by next weekend, with a rather strong surface low pressure system (MSLP < 980 mb?) currently being advertised as moving from the Southern Plains on FRI evening into the Middle and Upper-Mississippi River valley by Saturday evening.

This is being advertised as a seasonably stalwart low pressure system, with a rather tight pressure gradient, and a very ambient warm sector juxtaposed with SFC-500 mb bulk shear profiles AOA 100 kts. Additionally, both the mid- and upper-level jet cores associated with this system appear to be seasonably strong as well, so a potential SVR weather event may be in store for parts of the S Plains and the Middle and/or Lower Mississippi valley regions, along with a plenteous snowfall for someone in the Upper Midwest or Northern Plains.

We’ll be keeping any eye on this system as the week progresses, offering a more specific forecast later in the week, assuming the system does indeed materialize as currently being advertised.

Jesse

GFS - 12z SAT 110101

ECMWF - 00z SAT 110101