FCST: 12/11 – 12/12/10 Winter Storm
Posted on 08. Dec, 2010 by Jesse in Uncategorized
While a significant winter storm is becoming increasingly likely for parts of the CONUS this weekend, a capacious amount of dubiety exists regarding the exact strength, track and ultimately the snowfall amounts associated with this system. Nonetheless, a significant, disruptive and hazardous winter weather event appears poised to unfold across parts of the Middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys this coming weekend. Fitly, as the system strengthens and heads towards the Atlantic, it appears that an even more substantially higher impact event could unfold along the Mid-Atlantic region.
As a mid-level trough begins to amplify and dig equatorward, an area of low pressure will develop will trek ENE somewhere in the vicinity of the Ohio River valley. However, “somewhere in the vicinity” could be anywhere from right along the immediate river valley to 100+ miles north. Ample moisture and cold air advection behind the system will support a significant band of snowfall in excess of 6” over quite a broad region.
Taking a look at past few runs of the 00z and 12z GFS, one can see significant differences in the placement of the main surface low pressure system. As such, forecasting these types of events can be frustrating and problematic this far in advance, as even a soupcon of deviation in the track of the surface low can equate to large differences in the type, quantity and placement of precipitation, especially where winter precipitation and freezing levels are concerned. This also impacts the location of the rain/snow line, and thus can thwart even the most stellar predictions regarding the location of RA/SN/IP/FZRA.
Once we get within 36-48 hours of the actual system coming to fruition and getting properly assayed by upper air sampling networks, the forecast models should have a much more unassailable handle on the evolution and track of the system, including timing of phasing, absent any particular model biases. Another item of interest to watch is the evolution and impact of the wave over the eastern Corn Belt FRI-SAT. Therefore, at this juncture, attempting to ascertain any more miniscule details such as precipitation type and snowfall amounts would be feckless at best. Once the models have a better handle on what might be an arguably more salient solution, we will be sure to update the site to reflect our analysis on the evolution of this impending winter storm.
If nothing else, a massive intrusion of arctic air is set to impede upon the region next week. This could be a climatological
Forecast written by Jesse Risley and Adam Lucio
Model Run Comparisons To Depict Continuity Issues
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SREF showing various low predictions
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Massive Cold Air Intrusion Next Week
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QPF (precip) is enhanced in the NOGAPS, which has a more northern bias.
Convective Love
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