Convective Addiction

Active Weather Returns Late Next Week?

Posted on 15. Apr, 2010 by Jesse in Forecasts

Have you been one of the masses glaring at weather models with a feculent sense of optimism the last week?  Weather aficionados will certainly want to begin keeping a close eye on the next chances for potentially adverse weather, as the current pattern begins a subtle change into next week.

A shortwave disturbance is progged to traverse across the Southern Plains early next week, with a more robust closed low trekking out of the Southwestern United States and moving towards the Plains region during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe.  If the current trends do indeed coalesce into reality, more frenetic moisture should begin shuffling northward into the Plains by the latter portion of the week (THUR – FRI).  All of this suggests that the chances for organized, substantive convection may return by mid to late next week, bringing with it the possibility for the next optimal chase opportunities.

It should be noted that the timing, placement and strength of any potential events for next week will certainly change between then and now, potentially on a grandeur scale, so this precludes anything more substantive until early next week.  However, those having thrown themselves into a state of abject despondency since Easter weekend may view this forthcoming potential with an inkling of anticipation, and if nothing else as a sign that better days may well be on the horizon.

JLR

0-30 mb AG Dewp. 0Z THUR

850 mb Dew. - 12Z THUR/ECMWF