Following a what-might-have-been chase in northern Missouri yesterday with respect to tornado chances and severe weather, today is looking like a much more linear storm motion day. With a filling surface low sitting in SE Nebraska a large warm sector has overtake Missouri, Illinois and the southern half of Iowa. Temperatures at the surface will soar, but so will the temperatures aloft with a deep EML nearly ensuring convection will be limited to strong forcing mechanisms.
Previous model runs indicated large low level looping hodographs with deep layer shear, but recently winds and the surface over much of the warm sector have failed to back. This has recently in a large speed shear/low direction shear environment that is favorable for bowing and line segments over discrete supercells.
The strongest probability for a discrete supercell or a tornado would be along the warm front with enhanced helicity or an outflow boundary where wind may back locally. Overall this is a strong wind and low-end hail threat with one or two tornadoes being reported especially near the track or the surface low.
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