Medium-Range Spring Forecast-Updated 3/18
Posted on 18. Mar, 2010 by Adam in Uncategorized
Looking into the forecasting crystal ball, there is growing evidence of a more active weather pattern across the central portions of the United States. Inherently, that will lead to the possibility of severe weather episodes across that same region. With a strong baroclinic zone setting up across the mid-section of the CONUS there is a higher likelihood systems marching across the US.
The arctic oscillation is forecasted by the majority of the ensemble models to go negative over the next 2 weeks. That means the average pressure at 20 degrees north is largely forecasted to be below 1000mb.
AO Ensamble Forecast
Late March and especially into early April is an time for transition for the upper level jet as well. As it shifts from its winter hibernation south of the border and slowly begins migrating northward. An increase in upper-air dynamics lends its hand to supporting, generating and developing waves in the plains.
Last but certainly not least…March for the most part came in like a lamb, so it has to go out like a lion right?
Only time will tell if all of these signs are correct, but if you are looking for a quick start to April for severe weather, you just might be in luck.
-Ryan Wichman
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