Convective Addiction

This is looking more and more like it will NOT be a cold core event. Mike Umscheid wrote a nice piece about today’s event and reminded us that the phrase “cold core” is tossed around too much. This could be a legit warm sector string of pearl supercell event for SW IL. Judging by what the models show right now, seems we get dry slotted which allows some time for some destabilization. This could push CAPE up to 1000+ in some areas. The 6z NAM also shows a nice streak of bulk shear into IL. The crossovers arent bad either. The last 3 runs have been quite favorable for the development of at least isolated severe weather on Thursday. Big question is will earlier grunge and/or crapvection suppress the instability. If this does occur, we could a forced line of showers with the possibility of a damaging wind gust or two. No instability means no hail and no lightning. However if we get 1000+ j/kg it is conceivable we MAY have a string of pearls rocketing off to the N NE on the nose of the jet which will be blasting into Central IL. This is neither true or false. Just my reasoning and thoughts of what may happen.Best case scenario: A dying band of showers and thunderstorms moves in 10A-12P and clears the SW/C IL area by 2P. Lays down a boundary of some sort. We get dry slotted during peak heating 1-4P. Hopefully if we do get dry slotted, no cirrus or mid level clouds will filter in. Every bit of instability helps in this sort of situation. It won’t take much but the chaser would always want more than less. As the low rotates in from Nebraska and draws more moisture in, initiation can occur from 3-5 pm and head NE from far SW IL.  If the low deepens anymore, watch out. Lets get this thing cranking under 990 MB and really give us that 70/55 juice. Right now I am going to go as I said before, but drop the cold core terminology since it will not be one of those events. Keep an eye on surface boundaries Thursday and whether or not we shed some of the cloudiness. 0-3KM CAPE values will be your best friend if this day is to become a good one. I am going to compare it to yesterdays event in W OK. Only out of the 3 days, Thursday will have the best moisture return…. take it for what it’s worth. ~Danny