Well we are right back at it again it seems. It appears likely that things could be setting up for a local chase. The 18z and 00z NAM have shown a nice set up for SW IL/ E MO into C IL. High temps pushing 70 degrees with a decent moisture return North (along the lines of 55-60 F) underneath a -25 low at 500 and 40+kts of bulk shear. Now before you go on and say don’t believe the models output, they may overdo things etc etc… I know. Will we get up to 70 degrees? Will we push 60F dews? I don’t know. Today’s set up barely pushed 60 F and 50 dews but still produced a couple of nice tornadoes in W OK.
Pros: (How it can happen) 70 ish degree temps, 60 ish dews, 1000 j/kg CAPE, -6 LI’s, 40kt+ bulk shear, decent directional shear, EHI values maxing out near the 55 corridor.
Cons: (How it won’t happen)Temps not reaching a high enough level, dews being in the 40′s, zero instability, speed shear, but no low level shear, crapvection. GFS is not coming in line yet.
Bottom line is off this run the best 500′s line up with the best 850′s lines up with the best cape and the best EHI. As I said last week if we can get a storm to form, I don’t see any reason why it wouldn’t rotate and produce a tornado or two. ~Danny
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