Convective Addiction

3/8/10 Forecast – Musings about possible cold core setup in S. Plains

Posted on 03. Mar, 2010 by Danny in Forecasts

**This is not a “it is going to happen event, in fact previous runs have looked better than this one. The main point of the script below is to demonstrate how it were to happen if it were to happen, overall not COMPLETELY sold either way**

00z GFS – March 4th run: It is looking a bit more favorable that a cold core chase could be possible during Monday afternoon. Although the 500 temps have warmed from pushing -30C to around -25, I am still optimistic of a possible chase. Moisture is having a tougher time wrapping around the low but with upper 40 dews predicted there is still optimism. Surface winds aren’t as strong as I would like them to be but are backed pretty decently especially in SE Kansas. Surface temperatures MAY hit 60 degrees in these areas coupled with the possibility of no convective interference in the warm sector, should set the stage for some sunshine in the area of interest. Sunshine would enhance what very little instability there may be, but it won’t take a lot. We are NOT talking lapse rates in the -11 category type set up. Bottom line is if we can stay at or below – 25 degrees C at 500 , stream 50 degree dews north around the low, hit 60 degrees or so, and get some sunshine it may be a decent opportunity to get a tornado or two. We don’t necessarily need sunshine, we just need a storm. With the amount of vorticity, any storm can rotate should it form and move N/NW in N OK or SE KS. ~ Danny