Archive for March, 2010
Posted on30. Mar, 2010 by Ryan.
While many forecasters remain focused on this upcoming Fridays severe potential, there is another system beginning to show up on medium range models that are gaining credence. Since we are still a week out there are obviously difference between the models, most notably in the timing of the system. With the storm still 150+ hour [...]
Posted on28. Mar, 2010 by Skip.
Today marks the three year anniversary of a huge plains tornado outbreak. On March 28, 2007 over a hundred tornado reports came in from Nebraska down through Texas as a powerful storm system moved in from the west and fired off dozens of supercells along a dryline. Check out my chase log from the day: [...]
Posted on25. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
Are you tired of popping anti-SDS pharmaceutical products? If so, this weekend offers a potentially paltry cold core event in SE KS and Western MO. The 00z GFS and NAM, as well as the 12z ECMWF are fairly synchronous in propelling an upper level cold core low eastward along the KS/OK border region from 06z [...]
Posted on19. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
Today’s 12Z model runs have started to come into better agreement regarding the upcoming storm system that should move out of the Southern Plains and into the Ohio River valley by early Monday. Models seem to be centering on a more southerly track from what was being indicated much earlier in the week, which isn’t [...]
Posted on18. Mar, 2010 by Adam.
Looking into the forecasting crystal ball, there is growing evidence of a more active weather pattern across the central portions of the United States. Inherently, that will lead to the possibility of severe weather episodes across that same region. With a strong baroclinic zone setting up across the mid-section of the CONUS there is a [...]
Posted on16. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
Have you got your vernal bliss on yet? If so, an early spring snow storm could be arriving just in time to help you get your groove on. It could be a whopper; hold the pickles! This evening’s model runs are in, with the 00Z suite of model runs (GFS and NAM) continuing the trend [...]
Posted on14. Mar, 2010 by Danny.
Things did not pan out as expected, however, we were still treated to a decent light show and some beautiful structure. I may post a video of some lightning later on. We didn’t get any rotating storms or tornadoes, but storms did form and produced pea sized hail and abundant lightning. The front set up [...]
Posted on14. Mar, 2010 by Ryan.
On the night of Wednesday, March 10, 2010, a line of severe warned storms developed in central Missouri and tracked ENE. While tornado warnings had been issued on a cell in the northern part of the line, cloud bases were extremely high (5-6,000 ft), leading more towards a high wind threat than an imminent tornadic [...]
Posted on09. Mar, 2010 by Jesse.
Like poetry in motion, the latest suite of model runs (00z) has those of us in the upper Mississippi valley who are smitten with SDS once again refining the state of synoptic affairs. The NAM has pulled a somewhat about face, changing the stakes for Thursday’s game. The best surface instability has been shunted to [...]
Posted on09. Mar, 2010 by Skip.
I’m eyeing central IA into west central IL for possible cold-core like activity in the early afternoon including an isolated risk for large hail and tornadoes. The 12z NAM is in fairly good agreement with previous runs that an elongated area of low pressure at the surface is going to setup over central IA extending [...]